Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift

Reagerer kommuner på udligningsordningens incitamenter ?

Eva Rye Johansen og David Tønners

Den kommunale udligningsordning udjævner forskelle mellem kommunerne i de økonomiske vilkår. Denne artikel belyser udligningsordningens betydning for den enkelte kommunes økonomiske tilskyndelse til at hjælpe ledige i beskæftigelse og undersøger, om kommunerne reagerer på udligningsordningens tilskyndelser i forhold til beskæftigelse og uddannelse. Analysen anvender registerdata og udnytter en reform af udligningsordningen i 2021, der mindskede tilskyndelserne til at få ufaglærte i uddannelse og ledige i fleksjob for nogle kommuner, mens tilskyndelserne var uændrede i andre kommuner. Samlet tegner analyserne et billede af, at kommunerne ikke reagerer på udligningsordningens tilskyndelser, men der er dog for ufaglærtes uddannelse tegn på, at nogle kommuner har reageret.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2026)

Where You Grow Up Matters - Effects of Childhood Municipal Exposure on Intergenerational Mobility

Anna Kathrine Deding Nielsen

This paper studies whether childhood location causally affects intergenerational mobility in Denmark. Using population‐wide administrative data for cohorts born 1969–1989, I replicate the mover design of Chetty and Hendren (2018a) in a Danish setting, comparing children who move between municipalities at different ages to identify exposure effects on adult outcomes, isolating the effect of an extra year of childhood exposure while controlling for family background. I find that children who relocate to municipalities where local children have better longrun outcomes go on to achieve higher adult income, educational attainment, and hours worked, with gains increasing in proportion to the time they spend growing up there. The magnitude of the effects implies that a substantial share of the differences in intergenerational mobility across municipalities of upbringing reflects causal childhood exposure effects, rather than selection in parental residential sorting alone. Effects are robust, largest for children from low-income families, and suggestive of asymmetry, with especially large losses from moves to worse areas. These results point to the relevance of policies aimed at improving conditions in low-opportunity municipalities.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2026)

Danske finansielle kriser og finansiel ustabilitet efter 1945

Jesper Berg og Finn Østrup

Since the end of World War II, Denmark has experienced two large-scale financial crises with the collapse of many financial institutions and big losses. The first large crisis started in the end-1980’s and lasted to around 1993. The second big financial crisis hit Denmark in 2008 and lasted to around 2014. During both crises, a large part of losses was related to real estate. Prior to both crises were periods with strong growth in domestic demand, a big increase in prices on real estate, a surge in borrowing and widespread optimism. During both crises, borrowers experienced problems regarding raising finance. This was particularly the case during the most recent crisis, when Denmark was a victim to the freeze in liquidity that occurred in global financial markets because of the difficulties experienced in the American housing market. Compared to the other Nordic countries, Denmark did better during the first crisis and poorer during the second crisis. Besides the two large financial crises, a narrower crisis was experienced by Danish pension institutions after 2000 when they were hit by the downturn in the stock markets and the decline in interest rates. The more illiquid liabilities of pension institutions than banks made it easier to handle problems in this sector than in banks. In addition to a description of the crises, the article draws conclusions based on the Danish experience about the origins, consequences and handling of financial crises.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2026)

The Effect of Social Assistance Generosity on Crime: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

Vithusha Viknes

This paper studies the effects of decreased social assistance on criminal behavior among welfare recipients in Denmark. I analyse the 2014 reform of the Danish social assistance system, which introduced a sharp discontinuity at age 30, with lower benefits for individuals under 30. Using register data from 2014–2021 I employ a regression discontinuity design to identify the average treatment effect at the age-30 cutoff. The findings indicate that eligibility for lower benefits below age 30 increases both the likelihood of committing a crime and the number of crimes committed in a year. The probability of committing any crime in a year rises by 0.72 percentage points (a 9 % increase compared to the baseline at age 31), while the average number of crimes increases by 0.0122 (a 12 % increase). These effects are particularly pronounced for property and violent crime. The probability of committing a property crime rises by 0.57 percentage points (19 %), and violent crime by 0.30 percentage points (37 %). Heterogeneity analyses show that the effects are most pronounced among men, unmarried individuals, and those from disadvantaged family backgrounds. These findings show that reductions in financial support through the social assistance system can influence adverse behaviours such as criminal activity.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2026)

Do UI cuts Accelerate the Transition from Graduation to Employment? Evidence from a Danish Policy Reform

Frederik Bruhn Sørensen

In 2023 UI generosity was reduced for recent graduates in Denmark. The benefit period was shortened from two years to one, and a new two-tier structure imposed benefit reductions on non-parents after three months of unemployment. This paper examines the impact of these changes. I use a DiD strategy to estimate the reduction in benefit levels and find increased exits around the three-month mark. Additionally, I identify positive effects of the shortened benefit period, particularly after benefit exhaustion. I estimate an employment effect of 1,550 FTE – substantially below pre-reform projections – and compare my findings to the literature, discuss potential discrepancies and relate them to insights on optimal UI design.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2025)

Intergenerational Educational Mobility among Immigrants and Descendants in Denmark: The Role of Sample Selectivity and Data Quality

Rasmus Landersø og Kristian B. Karlson

This paper studies intergenerational educational mobility among immigrants and descendants in Denmark for cohorts born between 1965 and 1990. At first glance, the data suggests that immigrants experience higher mobility than native Danes, but this pattern is driven by low coverage and poor data quality of parental education information in administrative registers. Among immigrants with the most reliable data, mobility patterns closely resemble those of natives. Auxiliary analyses using representative survey data corroborate this finding. Moreopver, including immigrants in population‐wide mobility estimates – given their artificially high relative mobility – attenuates trends in estimated mobility, especially for cohorts born in the 1980s.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2025)

Tidlige danske finanskriser

Finn Østrup og Jesper Berg

Denmark has since the earliest times experienced numerous financial crises, defined as episodes where either the government or private actors representing an important share of economic activity have been unable to meet obligations. The article looks into the experience of the early Danish financial crises, the time horizon of the description being the period up to the end of World War II. Sovereign debt crises have occurred from the 14th century to 1814. They have usually been associated with Danish participation in wars. The first Danish bank issuing paper money failed several times after its foundation in 1736. Crises involving problems in Danish merchant houses and later financial institutions in meeting debt obligations have regularly taken place since 1782. They have often been associated with difficulties accessing liquidity. The most important crises took place in 1857-58, 1907-08, and in 1921-29. Danish agriculture, for many years the country’s main economic sector, faced widespread bankruptcy throughout the 1820s and the 1930s. Major Danish insurance providers experienced problems notably after World War I. Based on the Danish experience, the article draws conclusions about the origins of financial crises, their consequences and what policies to pursue to minimize their impact.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2025)

Militærudgifter, forsvarsindustri og civile forbrugsmuligheder

Peter Birch Sørensen

NATOs medlemslande har forpligtet sig til at øge deres forsvarsudgifter til 3,5 pct. af BNP. Øgede forsvarsudgifter vil formindske de ressourcer, der er til rådighed til privat eller offentligt forbrug af civile goder. Dette papir viser inden for rammerne af en to-sektor model for civil og militær produktion, at faldet i de civile forbrugsmuligheder kan begrænses ved, at staten finansierer forskning og udvikling, som understøtter produktionen i den indenlandske forsvarsindustri. Direkte statsligt indkøb fra den indenlandske forsvarsindustri vil derimod øge faldet i de civile forbrugsmuligheder.

(Issue no. 1/Vol. 2025)

Special Issue on the Green Transition and the Danish Economy

Guest Editors for this special issue: Thomas Bue Bjørner and Niels Lynggård Hansen

Environmental economics has in recent years become part of mainstream economics. This reflects the severe environmental and climate challenges at a global scale that have been building up over many decades. This has far-reaching consequences for societies in multiple ways. One consequence of this development is that, whereas academic articles on environmental economics were previously published mainly in specialized field journals, they are now frequently featured in leading general economics journals.

(Special Issue – 2025)

Status fra redaktørerne – december 2024


Vi har i 2024 overtaget redaktøransvaret for Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift. Det skete i forbindelse med Nationaløkonomisk Forenings generalforsamling den 29. maj. Det er en vigtig opgave, som vi sætter en stor ære i at varetage.
   Vores erklærede mål har fra starten været at styrke publiceringsomfanget og tidsskriftets synlighed og derved stille det mere centralt i ikke mindst den del af den danske politisk-økonomiske debat, som hviler på et forskningsmæssigt fundament.
   Vi er kommet godt fra start. I 2024 nåede tidsskriftet 8 artikler – hvoraf tre dog blev udgivet, mens Jan Rose Skaksen var ved roret. Artiklerne i år har drejet sig om vigtige emner som klimaregulering af landbruget, arvingers arbejdsudbud, negative pengepolitiske renter, makropolitiske modeller i Danmark, anvendelsen af felteksperimenter i designet af miljøpolitik, Arne-pension og fordelingseffekter af huslejeregulering.
   Med 8 artikler blev 2024 tidsskriftets mest aktive år siden 2013. Det er dog stadig et godt stykke vej fra fordoms niveauer, hvor man i 2000-10 jævnligt så 15-20 nye årlige artikler. Men der er mere i pipelinen, og planen er at udgive et særnummer i starten af 2025. Det fortæller vi mere om lidt længere nede ad vejen. Vi har dog store forventninger, og hvis det bliver godt, forestiller vi os flere af den slags de kommende år.
   Vores første arbejdsopgaver har været at etablere en LinkedIn‐profil til tidsskriftet, skabe en struktur for arbejdet og snakke om fremtidige muligheder for tidsskriftet.
   I 2025 fortsætter vi arbejdet, og her vil vi optrappe indsatsen med aktivt at kontakte mulige bidragende institutioner, ministerier, styrelser, virksomheder og personer. Det ser vi frem til.


God jul og godt nytår.

Michael Svarer og Jesper Linaa